Simon Center: Research & Publications

The Simon Center publishes the findings of its studies for to help the general public understand topics relating to economic growth.

Current Projects

• “Diversification Also Works for Forecasting the Equity Premium: Consistently Outperforming the Historical Average,” with David E. Rapach, Jack K. Strauss and Guofu Zhou. Submitted Review of Financial Studies.
• “Forecasting the Dollar: Do Theories Help?” David E. Rapach and Jack K. Strauss

Archives

Forecasting Employment

• “Forecasting U.S. Employment Growth Using Forecast Combining Methods,” David E. Rapach and Jack K. Strauss, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 27, No. 1 (January 2008), pp. 75-93. Appendix of Additional Results.
• “Bagging or Combining (or Both)? An Analysis Based on Forecasting U.S. Employment Growth,” with David E. Rapach and Jack K. Strauss, Econometrics Reviews, forthcoming 
• “Forecasting Employment Growth in Missouri with Many Potentially Relevant Predictors: An Analysis of Forecast Combining Methods,” with David E. Rapach and Jack K. Strauss, Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis Regional Economic Development, Vol. 1, No. 1 (2005), pp. 97-112.

Forecasting Housing Prices 

• “Differences in Housing Price Forecastability Across U.S. States,” with David Rapach and Jack K. Strauss. Forthcoming International Journal of Forecasting.
• “Consumption, Housing Wealth, and Recovery: An Investigation using New-State-Level Measures of Consumption and Wealth.” Jack Strauss. Working paper. “Forecasting Real Housing Price Growth in the Eighth District States”, with David E. Rapach and Jack K. Strauss, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Regional Economic Development, Vol. 3, No. 2 (November 2007), pp. 33-42.
• “Habit Formation, Heterogeneity, and Housing Wealth Effects Across U.S. States” David E. Rapach and Jack K. Strauss (slides for a presentation at the Missouri Economics Conference on March 30, 2007). 
• “The Long-Run Relationship Between Consumption and Housing Wealth in the Eighth District States,” with David E. Rapach and Jack K. Strauss, Regional Economic Development, Vol. 2, No. 2 (October 2006), pp. 140-147

Forecasting Markets

• “Forecasting Stock Return Volatility in the Presence of Structural Breaks,” David E. Rapach, Jack K. Strauss and Mark E. Wohar, in Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty, David E. Rapach and Mark E. Wohar (eds.), Vol. 3 of Frontiers of Economics and Globalization (May 2008), pp. 381-416. 
• “Structural Breaks and GARCH Models of Exchange Rate Volatility,” with David E. Rapach and Jack K. Strauss, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 23, No. 1 (January-February 2008), pp. 65-90.